Excellent article. Some choice quotes:

Be clear: I’m not saying OS X is dead, nor that Apple has no interest in improving it. I am saying that I suspect that the days of everyone buying a MacBook to get online are soon to be over. I’ve already written about how I see our three-Mac family turning into a one-Mac, three-iPad family over the next hardware cycle and I imagine that scenario repeated industry-wide over time. Already the ratio of iPhone OS devices to Macs is 5:2.

And:

I’m Scottish. Frying things and pessimism are our two main industries.

[I created this post back on May 6th and published it from my iPhone. It looks like it was stuck in the Drafts section of my beta Tumblr app, and I didn’t notice it until today.]

Fraser Speirs: Getting really real on soft dev in the future